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Friday, October 07, 2022

September Employment Report: 263 thousand Jobs, 3.5% Unemployment Rate

by Calculated Risk on 10/07/2022 08:44:00 AM

From the BLS:

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 263,000 in September, and the unemployment rate edged down to 3.5 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Notable job gains occurred in leisure and hospitality and in health care.
The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for July was revised up by 11,000, from +526,000 to +537,000, and the change for August remained at +315,000. After revision, employment gains in July and August combined were 11,000 higher than previously reported
emphasis added
Employment Recessions, Scariest Job ChartClick on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the job losses from the start of the employment recession, in percentage terms.

The current employment recession was by far the worst recession since WWII in percentage terms.

However, as of August, all of the jobs have returned and are now 514 thousand above pre-pandemic levelsI'll post this graph through the January 2023 report (includes the annual revision).

Year-over-year change employment The second graph shows the year-over-year change in total non-farm employment since 1968.

In September, the year-over-year change was 5.69 million jobs.  Employment was up significantly year-over-year.

Total payrolls increased by 263 thousand in September.  Private payrolls increased by 288 thousand, and public payrolls decreased 25 thousand.

Payrolls for July and August were revised up 11 thousand, combined.

The third graph shows the employment population ratio and the participation rate.

Employment Pop Ratio and participation rate The Labor Force Participation Rate decreased to 62.3% in September, from 62.4% in August. This is the percentage of the working age population in the labor force.

The Employment-Population ratio was unchanged at 60.1% (blue line).

I'll post the 25 to 54 age group employment-population ratio graph later.

unemployment rateThe fourth graph shows the unemployment rate.

The unemployment rate was decreased in September to 3.5% from 3.7% in August.

This was slightly above consensus expectations; and July and August payrolls were revised up by 11,000 combined.  

I'll have more later ...