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Saturday, October 29, 2022

Schedule for Week of October 30, 2022

by Calculated Risk on 10/29/2022 08:11:00 AM


The key report this week is the October employment report on Friday.

Other key indicators include the October ISM manufacturing and services indexes, October vehicle sales, and the September trade deficit.

The FOMC meets this week and is expected to raise rates 75 bp.

----- Monday, Oct 31st -----

9:45 AM: Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for October. The consensus is for a reading of 47.2, up from 45.7 in September.

10:00 AM: The Q3 Housing Vacancies and Homeownership report from the Census Bureau.

10:30 AM: Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for October.  This is the last regional Fed survey for October.

----- Tuesday, Nov 1st -----

8:00 AM ET: Corelogic House Price index for September.

10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for October.  The consensus is for 49.9, down from 50.9. 

10:00 AM: Construction Spending for September.  The consensus is for 0.5% decrease in spending.

Vehicle SalesAll day: Light vehicle sales for October.

The consensus is for sales of 14.3 million SAAR, up from 13.5 million SAAR in September (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).

This graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967. The dashed line is the current sales rate.

----- Wednesday, Nov 2nd -----

7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

8:15 AM: The ADP Employment Report for October. This report is for private payrolls only (no government).  The consensus is for 200,000 jobs added, down from 208,000 in September.

2:00 PM: FOMC Meeting Announcement. The FOMC is expected to raise rates 75bp at this meeting.

2:30 PM: Fed Chair Jerome Powell holds a press briefing following the FOMC announcement.

----- Thursday, Nov 3rd -----

8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  The consensus is for an increase to 222 thousand from 217 thousand last week.

U.S. Trade Deficit8:30 AM: Trade Balance report for September from the Census Bureau.  The consensus is for the deficit to be $72.1 billion in September, from $67.4 billion in August.

This graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum, through the most recent report. The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products.

10:00 AM: the ISM Services Index for October.  The consensus is for a decrease to 55.5 from 56.7.

----- Friday, Nov 4th -----

Employment Recessions, Scariest Job Chart8:30 AM: Employment Report for October.   The consensus is for 200,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to increase to 3.6%.

There were 263,000 jobs added in September, and the unemployment rate was at 3.5%.

This graph shows the job losses from the start of the employment recession, in percentage terms.

The current employment recession was by far the worst recession since WWII in percentage terms.  However, all of the jobs have returned.