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Friday, October 14, 2022

Q3 GDP Tracking: Moving on Up

by Calculated Risk on 10/14/2022 12:36:00 PM

From BofA:

On net, today's data on retail sales and import and export prices pushed up our 3Q US GDP tracking estimate by 0.2pp to 1.9% q/q saar, from 1.7% previously. [October 14th estimate]
emphasis added
From Goldman:
Following today’s data, we boosted our Q3 GDP tracking estimate by 0.4pp to +2.3% (qoq ar). [October 14th estimate]
And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2022 is 2.8 percent on October 14, down from 2.9 percent on October 7. After recent releases from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics and the US Census Bureau, the nowcast of third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth decreased from 1.3 percent to 1.2 percent. [October 14th estimate]