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Monday, September 26, 2022

Tuesday: Durable Goods, Case-Shiller and FHFA House Prices, New Home Sales, Richmond Fed Mfg

by Calculated Risk on 9/26/2022 09:10:00 PM

Mortgage Rates From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Now at 20-Year Highs

The most recent historical high water market for mortgage rates was "14 years." It was broken so many times in September that we officially declared it to be boring last Tuesday. Now, less than a week later, 14-year highs would be more exciting than boring. As of mid-day today, we're officially at 20 year highs. [30 year fixed 6.87%]
emphasis added
• At 8:30 AM ET, Durable Goods Orders for August from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a 0.1% decrease in durable goods orders.

• At 9:00 AM, S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for July. The consensus is for a 17.0% year-over-year increase in the Comp 20 index for July.

• Also at 9:00 AM, FHFA House Price Index for July. This was originally a GSE only repeat sales, however there is also an expanded index.

• At 10:00 AM, New Home Sales for August from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for 500 thousand SAAR, down from 511 thousand in July.

• Also at 10:00 AM, the Richmond Fed manufacturing survey for September. This is the last of the regional surveys for September.

On COVID (focus on hospitalizations and deaths):

COVID Metrics
New Cases per Day250,01758,522≤5,0001
Deaths per Day2348391≤501
1my goals to stop daily posts,
27-day average for Cases, Currently Hospitalized, and Deaths
🚩 Increasing 7-day average week-over-week for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths
✅ Goal met.

COVID-19 Deaths per DayClick on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the daily (columns) and 7-day average (line) of deaths reported.

NOTE: Cases have declined by more than half, and deaths lag cases - so we might see average daily deaths in the 200s soon (good news, but still too high).

Average daily deaths bottomed in July 2021 at 214 per day.