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Thursday, August 18, 2022

More Analysis on July Existing Home Sales

by Calculated Risk on 8/18/2022 10:46:00 AM

Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.81 million SAAR in July


ales in July (4.81 million SAAR) were down 5.9% from the previous month and were 20.2% below the July 2021 sales rate. Sales are now below pre-pandemic levels and, excluding the pandemic decline, sales are the lowest level since 2014.
The third graph shows existing home sales for each month, Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA), for a few selected periods. Black and light Purple are the maximum sales per month during the bubble (2005) and the minimum sales during the bust (2008 - 2011). The most recent four years are shown (2019 through 2022).

Existing Home Sales Year-over-yearSales NSA in July (453,000) were 22.4% below sales in July 2021 (584,000).   Sales NSA year-to-date are down 10.3% compared to the same period in 2021.

This decrease, NSA, was similar to change in the markets I track each month.
Key point on Timing of Sales

Existing home sales are reported when the transaction closes. Sales in July were mostly for contracts signed in June and July. Recent data shows a significant slowdown in activity starting in May and decelerating further in June.

My sense is contracts for sales really declined in June, and that will show up as closed sales in July and August - so we should expect a further decline in existing home sales next month.
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