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Friday, August 05, 2022

July Employment Report: 528 thousand Jobs, 3.5% Unemployment Rate

by Calculated Risk on 8/05/2022 08:43:00 AM

From the BLS:

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 528,000 in July, and the unemployment rate edged down to 3.5 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job growth was widespread, led by gains in leisure and hospitality, professional and business services, and health care. Both total nonfarm employment and the unemployment rate have returned to their February 2020 pre-pandemic levels.
The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for May was revised up by 2,000, from +384,000 to +386,000, and the change for June was revised up by 26,000, from +372,000 to +398,000. With these revisions, employment in May and June combined is 28,000 higher than previously reported.
emphasis added
Employment Recessions, Scariest Job ChartClick on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the job losses from the start of the employment recession, in percentage terms.

The current employment recession was by far the worst recession since WWII in percentage terms.

However, 29 months after the onset of the current employment recession, all of the jobs have returned.

Year-over-year change employment The second graph shows the year-over-year change in total non-farm employment since 1968.

In July, the year-over-year change was 6.15 million jobs.  This was up significantly year-over-year.

Total payrolls increased by 528 thousand in July.  Private payrolls increased by 471 thousand, and public payrolls increased 57 thousand.

Payrolls for May and June were revised up 28 thousand, combined.

The third graph shows the employment population ratio and the participation rate.

Employment Pop Ratio and participation rate The Labor Force Participation Rate decreased to 62.1% in July, from 62.2% in June. This is the percentage of the working age population in the labor force.

The Employment-Population ratio increased to 60.0% from 59.9% (blue line).

I'll post the 25 to 54 age group employment-population ratio graph later.

unemployment rateThe fourth graph shows the unemployment rate.

The unemployment rate was decreased in July to 3.5% from 3.6% in June.

This was well above consensus expectations; and May and June payrolls were revised up by 28,000 combined.  

I'll have more later ...