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Wednesday, August 03, 2022

How Much will the Fannie & Freddie Conforming Loan Limit Increase for 2023?

by Calculated Risk on 8/03/2022 11:54:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: How Much will the Fannie & Freddie Conforming Loan Limit Increase for 2023?

A brief excerpt:

With house prices up sharply again over the last year, an interesting question is: How much will the Fannie & Freddie conforming loan limits (CLL) increase for 2023? And how much will the FHA insured loan limits increase?

First, there are different loan limits for various geographical areas. There are also different loan limits depending on the number of units (from 1 to 4 units). For example, currently the CLL is $647,200 for one-unit properties in low-cost areas. For Los Angeles County, the CLL is $970,800 for one-unit properties (50% higher than the baseline CLL).
This graph shows the CLL since 1979. The CLL was unchanged from 2006 though 2016.
Conforming Loan LimitThe adjustment is based on the House Price Index value in Q3 divided by Q3 in the prior year. The FHFA index is a repeat sales index, similar to Case-Shiller.
Currently we only have data for Q1 2022 for the quarterly index (up 17.5% from Q1 2021), and the Purchase-Only index was up 18.3% through May 2022.
We need the house price data through September 2022 to calculate the conforming loan limit for 2023. This quarterly data will be released in late November.

Based on the current year-over-year house price change, the CLL could be close to $760,000 in 2023. However, year-over-year (YoY) house price growth is clearly slowing, and it is possible the CLL will be in the low-to-mid $700 thousand range for 2023.
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