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Thursday, August 04, 2022

Goldman July Payrolls Preview

by Calculated Risk on 8/04/2022 04:44:00 PM

A few brief excerpts from a note by Goldman Sachs economist Spencer Hill:

We estimate nonfarm payrolls rose by 225k in July (mom sa) ... The July seasonal factors have become significantly more restrictive—even more so than in June—and the seasonal adjustment algorithm may be overfitting to the reopening-related job strength in the summers of 2020 and 2021. ... We estimate that the unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.6% in July ...
emphasis added
CR Note: The consensus is for 250 thousand jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 3.6%.