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Friday, August 12, 2022

Early Q3 GDP Forecasts

by Calculated Risk on 8/12/2022 10:09:00 AM

From BofA:

Looking ahead to next week, we will initiate our US GDP tracking for Q3 following the release of July retail sales. ... If our forecast for July retail sales prove accurate, it would suggest that household spending is off to a fast start in Q3 and pose upside risk to our forecast for another modest decline in real GDP in the quarter. [-0.5 percent Q3, perliminary estimate]
emphasis added
From Goldman:
We left our Q3 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +0.9% (qoq ar). [August 10 estimate]
And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2022 is 2.5 percent on August 10, up from 1.4 percent on August 4. [August 10 estimate]