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Tuesday, July 26, 2022

New Home Sales Decrease Sharply to 590,000 Annual Rate in June

by Calculated Risk on 7/26/2022 10:09:00 AM

The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in June were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 590 thousand.

The previous three months were revised down significantly.

Sales of new single‐family houses in June 2022 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 590,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 8.1 percent below the revised May rate of 642,000 and is 17.4 percent below the June 2021 estimate of 714,000.
emphasis added
New Home SalesClick on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows New Home Sales vs. recessions since 1963. The dashed line is the current sales rate.

New home sales are now below pre-pandemic levels.

The second graph shows New Home Months of Supply.

New Home Sales, Months of SupplyThe months of supply increased in June to 9.3 months from 8.4 months in May.

The all-time record high was 12.1 months of supply in January 2009. The all-time record low was 3.5 months, most recently in October 2020.

This is well above the top of the normal range (about 4 to 6 months of supply is normal).
"The seasonally‐adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of June was 457,000. This represents a supply of 9.3 months at the current sales rate."
New Home Sales, NSAThe last graph shows sales NSA (monthly sales, not seasonally adjusted annual rate).

In June 2022 (red column), 49 thousand new homes were sold (NSA). Last year, 61 thousand homes were sold in June.

The all-time high for June was 115 thousand in 2005, and the all-time low for June was 28 thousand in 2010 and in 2011.

This was well below expectations, and sales in the three previous months were revised down significantly. I'll have more later today.