by Calculated Risk on 6/15/2022 09:03:00 PM

Thursday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  The consensus is for 215 thousand down from 229 thousand last week.

• Also at 8:30 AM, Housing Starts for May. The consensus is for 1.700 million SAAR, down from 1.724 million SAAR in April.

• Also at 8:30 AM, the Philly Fed manufacturing survey for June. The consensus is for a reading of 5.3, up from 2.6.

On COVID (focus on hospitalizations and deaths):

COVID Metrics
	Now	Week Ago	Goal
Percent fully Vaccinated	66.8%	---	≥70.0%1
Fully Vaccinated (millions)	221.9	---	≥2321
New Cases per Day3	103,935	108,458	≤5,0002
Hospitalized3🚩	23,898	23,477	≤3,0002
Deaths per Day3	276	314	≤502
1 Minimum to achieve "herd immunity" (estimated between 70% and 85%). 2my goals to stop daily posts, 37-day average for Cases, Currently Hospitalized, and Deaths 🚩 Increasing 7-day average week-over-week for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths ✅ Goal met.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the daily (columns) and 7-day average (line) of deaths reported.

New cases have quadrupled from the recent low.  

Average daily deaths bottomed in July 2021 at 214 per day.