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Friday, June 24, 2022

Q2 GDP Forecasts: Fairly Wide Range

by Calculated Risk on 6/24/2022 01:32:00 PM

From BofA:

We continue to track 1.5% qoq saar growth for 2Q, unchanged from last week. We continue to forecast 2.3% GDP growth for 2022 and expect growth to slow to 1.4% and 0.8% in 2023 and 2024, respectively as the lagged effects of tighter monetary policy and financial conditions cool the economy. [June 24 estimate]
emphasis added
From Goldman:
Following today’s data, we boosted our Q2 GDP tracking estimate by 0.1pp to +2.9% (qoq ar) [June 24 estimate]
And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2022 is 0.0 percent on June 16, unchanged from June 15 after rounding. [June 16 estimate]