by Calculated Risk on 6/02/2022 09:01:00 PM

My May Employment Preview

Goldman May Payrolls Preview

Friday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, Employment Report for May.   The consensus is for 320,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to decline to 3.5%.

• At 10:00 AM, the ISM Services Index for May.   The consensus is for a reading of 56.4, down from 57.1.

On COVID (focus on hospitalizations and deaths):

COVID Metrics
	Now	Week Ago	Goal
Percent fully Vaccinated	66.7%	---	≥70.0%1
Fully Vaccinated (millions)	221.4	---	≥2321
New Cases per Day3	100,683	110,080	≤5,0002
Hospitalized3🚩	21,306	20,290	≤3,0002
Deaths per Day3	244	318	≤502
1 Minimum to achieve "herd immunity" (estimated between 70% and 85%). 2my goals to stop daily posts, 37-day average for Cases, Currently Hospitalized, and Deaths 🚩 Increasing 7-day average week-over-week for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths ✅ Goal met.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the daily (columns) and 7-day average (line) of deaths reported.

New cases have quadrupled from the recent low, and deaths are increasing week-over-week.

Average daily deaths bottomed in July 2021 at 214 per day.