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Thursday, June 02, 2022

Friday: Employment Report

by Calculated Risk on 6/02/2022 09:01:00 PM

My May Employment Preview

Goldman May Payrolls Preview

• At 8:30 AM ET, Employment Report for May.   The consensus is for 320,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to decline to 3.5%.

• At 10:00 AM, the ISM Services Index for May.   The consensus is for a reading of 56.4, down from 57.1.

On COVID (focus on hospitalizations and deaths):

COVID Metrics
Percent fully Vaccinated66.7%---≥70.0%1
Fully Vaccinated (millions)221.4---≥2321
New Cases per Day3100,683110,080≤5,0002
Deaths per Day3244318≤502
1 Minimum to achieve "herd immunity" (estimated between 70% and 85%).
2my goals to stop daily posts,
37-day average for Cases, Currently Hospitalized, and Deaths
🚩 Increasing 7-day average week-over-week for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths
✅ Goal met.

COVID-19 Positive Tests per DayClick on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the daily (columns) and 7-day average (line) of deaths reported.

New cases have quadrupled from the recent low, and deaths are increasing week-over-week.

Average daily deaths bottomed in July 2021 at 214 per day.