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Tuesday, May 31, 2022

Wednesday: Job Openings, ISM Mfg, Construction Spending, Beige Book, Vehicle Sales

by Calculated Risk on 5/31/2022 09:01:00 PM

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: MBS Live Morning: Sharp Losses Reinforce Last Week's Yield Floor

10yr yields bounced at or near 2.72% for 4 straight days heading into the end of last week. Now this morning, they're sharply higher and already above the next major technical level at 2.83%. Even as bonds rallied in recent weeks, we've been expecting the gains to give way to a more volatile, sideways range. [30 year fixed 5.25%]
emphasis added
• At 7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

• At 10:00 AM, Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for April from the BLS.

• Also at 10:00 AM, ISM Manufacturing Index for May. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 54.5, down from 55.4 in April.

• Also at 10:00 AM, Construction Spending for April. The consensus is for a 0.5% increase in construction spending.

• At 2:00 PM, the Federal Reserve Beige Book, an informal review by the Federal Reserve Banks of current economic conditions in their Districts.

• All day, Light vehicle sales for May. The consensus is for light vehicle sales to be 14.5 million SAAR in May, up from 14.3 million in April (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).  Wards Auto is forecasting a decline in sales to 13.4 million SAAR.

On COVID (focus on hospitalizations and deaths):

COVID Metrics
Percent fully Vaccinated66.7%---≥70.0%1
Fully Vaccinated (millions)221.3---≥2321
New Cases per Day394,260104,396≤5,0002
Deaths per Day3🚩301288≤502
1 Minimum to achieve "herd immunity" (estimated between 70% and 85%).
2my goals to stop daily posts,
37-day average for Cases, Currently Hospitalized, and Deaths
🚩 Increasing 7-day average week-over-week for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths
✅ Goal met.

COVID-19 Positive Tests per DayClick on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the daily (columns) and 7-day average (line) of deaths reported.

New cases have quadrupled from the recent low, and deaths are increasing week-over-week.

The data released today was likely impacted by the 3-day holiday.

Average daily deaths bottomed in July 2021 at 214 per day.