by Calculated Risk on 5/17/2022 09:01:00 PM

Wednesday:
• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

• At 8:30 AM, Housing Starts for April. The consensus is for 1.773 million SAAR, down from 1.793 million SAAR in March.

• During the day, The AIA's Architecture Billings Index for April (a leading indicator for commercial real estate).

On COVID (focus on hospitalizations and deaths):

COVID Metrics
	Now	Week Ago	Goal
Percent fully Vaccinated	66.5%	---	≥70.0%1
Fully Vaccinated (millions)	220.7	---	≥2321
New Cases per Day3🚩	94,199	74,889	≤5,0002
Hospitalized3🚩	15,977	13,990	≤3,0002
Deaths per Day3	274	307	≤502
1 Minimum to achieve "herd immunity" (estimated between 70% and 85%). 2my goals to stop daily posts, 37-day average for Cases, Currently Hospitalized, and Deaths 🚩 Increasing 7-day average week-over-week for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths ✅ Goal met.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the daily (columns) and 7-day average (line) of deaths reported.

New cases have more almost quadrupled from the recent low, and hospitalizations are increasing week-over-week.

Average daily deaths bottomed in July 2021 at 214 per day.