by Calculated Risk on 5/18/2022 09:01:00 PM

Thursday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, the initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  The consensus is for 210 thousand up from 203 thousand last week.

• Also at 8:30 AM, the Philly Fed manufacturing survey for May. The consensus is for a reading of 16.7, down from 17.6.

• At 10:00 AM, Existing Home Sales for April from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The consensus is for 5.62 million SAAR, down from 5.77 million.

On COVID (focus on hospitalizations and deaths):

COVID Metrics
	Now	Week Ago	Goal
Percent fully Vaccinated	66.5%	---	≥70.0%1
Fully Vaccinated (millions)	220.7	---	≥2321
New Cases per Day3🚩	99,347	81,031	≤5,0002
Hospitalized3🚩	16,624	14,258	≤3,0002
Deaths per Day3	273	317	≤502
1 Minimum to achieve "herd immunity" (estimated between 70% and 85%). 2my goals to stop daily posts, 37-day average for Cases, Currently Hospitalized, and Deaths 🚩 Increasing 7-day average week-over-week for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths ✅ Goal met.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the daily (columns) and 7-day average (line) of deaths reported.

New cases have quadrupled from the recent low, and hospitalizations are increasing week-over-week.

Average daily deaths bottomed in July 2021 at 214 per day.