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Wednesday, May 25, 2022

Thursday: GDP, Unemployment Claims, Pending Home Sales

by Calculated Risk on 5/25/2022 09:01:00 PM

• At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  The consensus is for 220 thousand up from 218 thousand last week.

• Also at 8:30 AM, Gross Domestic Product, 1st quarter 2021 (Second estimate). The consensus is that real GDP decreased 1.3% annualized in Q1, up from the advance estimate of -1.4%.

• At 10:00 AM, Pending Home Sales Index for April. The consensus is for a 1.9% decrease in the index.

• At 11:00 AM, the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey for May.

On COVID (focus on hospitalizations and deaths):

COVID Metrics
Percent fully Vaccinated66.6%---≥70.0%1
Fully Vaccinated (millions)221.1---≥2321
New Cases per Day3🚩104,39999,215≤5,0002
Deaths per Day3🚩288273≤502
1 Minimum to achieve "herd immunity" (estimated between 70% and 85%).
2my goals to stop daily posts,
37-day average for Cases, Currently Hospitalized, and Deaths
🚩 Increasing 7-day average week-over-week for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths
✅ Goal met.

COVID-19 Positive Tests per DayClick on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the daily (columns) and 7-day average (line) of deaths reported.

New cases have more almost quadrupled from the recent low, and hospitalizations are increasing week-over-week.

Average daily deaths bottomed in July 2021 at 214 per day.