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Monday, May 30, 2022

Housing Inventory May 30th Update: Inventory UP 5.7% Week-over-week

by Calculated Risk on 5/30/2022 10:06:00 AM

Altos reports inventory is up 11.4% year-over-year.

Inventory usually declines in the winter, and then increases in the spring. Inventory bottomed seasonally at the beginning of March 2022 and is now up 51% since then.

Altos Home InventoryClick on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

This inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research.

As of May 27th, inventory was at 364 thousand (7-day average), compared to 344 thousand the prior week. Inventory was up 5.7% from the previous week.

Inventory is still very low. Compared to the same week in 2021, inventory is up 11.4% from 327 thousand, however compared to the same week in 2020 inventory is down 49.4% from 719 thousand.  Compared to 3 years ago, inventory is down 61.6% from 948 thousand.

Here are the inventory milestones I’m watching for with the Altos data:

1. The seasonal bottom (happened on March 4th for Altos) ✅

2. Inventory up year-over-year (happened on May 13th for Altos) ✅

3. Inventory up compared to two years ago (currently down 49.4% according to Altos)

4. Inventory up compared to 2019 (currently down 61.6%).

Altos Home Inventory
Here is a graph of the inventory change year-over-year and vs two years ago (milestone 3 above).

The blue line is the year-over-year data, and the red line is compared to two years ago.

Two years ago (in 2020) inventory was declining all year, so the two-year comparison will get easier all year.

Mike Simonsen discusses this data regularly on Youtube.