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Monday, May 16, 2022

Housing Inventory May 16th Update: Inventory UP 1.5% Year-over-Year

by Calculated Risk on 5/16/2022 09:32:00 AM

Altos reports inventory is up year-over-year!

Inventory usually declines in the winter, and then increases in the spring. Inventory bottomed seasonally at the beginning of March 2022 and is now up 32% since then.

Altos Home InventoryClick on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

This inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research.

As of May 13th, inventory was at 318 thousand (7-day average), compared to 305 thousand the prior week. Inventory was up 4.2% from the previous week.

Inventory is still very low. Compared to the same week in 2021, inventory is up 1.5% from 314 thousand, however compared to the same week in 2020, and inventory is down 56.4% from 729 thousand.  Compared to 3 years ago, inventory is down 65.2% from 915 thousand.

Here are the inventory milestones I’m watching for with the Altos data:

1. The seasonal bottom (happened on March 4th for Altos) ✅

2. Inventory up year-over-year (happened on May 13th for Altos) ✅

3. Inventory up compared to two years ago (currently down 56% according to Altos)

4. Inventory up compared to 2019 (currently down 65%).

Altos Home Inventory
Here is a graph of the inventory change year-over-year and vs two years ago (milestone 3 above).

The blue line is the year-over-year data, and the red line is compared to two years ago.

Inventory is now up year-over-year.  Two years ago (in 2020) inventory was declining all year, so the two-year comparison will get easier all year.

Mike Simonsen discusses this data regularly on Youtube.