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Monday, April 11, 2022

Tuesday: CPI

by Calculated Risk on 4/11/2022 08:16:00 PM

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: MBS Live Recap: Running Out of Ways to Say "Higher Rates"

Market watchers are at risk of major desensitization when it comes to "rates continuing higher." For essentially all of 2022 apart from the onset of the Ukraine war, rates have moved one direction. Not only that, but the pace has been relatively unprecedented unless we compare it to some of the most horrific historical precedents. It seems that every time the market gives us a shred of hope that the outlook is moderating, the hope is quickly shredded and we're back to wondering how high rates will go before we see legitimate relief. Today ended up being just another day in that saga. [30 year fixed 5.25%]
emphasis added
• At 6:00 AM ET, NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for March.

• At 8:30 AM, The Consumer Price Index for March from the BLS. The consensus is for 1.2% increase in CPI (up 8.5% YoY) and a 0.5% increase in core CPI (up 6.6% YoY).

On COVID (focus on hospitalizations and deaths):

COVID Metrics
Percent fully Vaccinated65.8%---≥70.0%1
Fully Vaccinated (millions)218.4---≥2321
New Cases per Day3🚩28,92725,877≤5,0002
Deaths per Day3500582≤502
1 Minimum to achieve "herd immunity" (estimated between 70% and 85%).
2my goals to stop daily posts,
37-day average for Cases, Currently Hospitalized, and Deaths
🚩 Increasing 7-day average week-over-week for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths
✅ Goal met.

COVID-19 Positive Tests per DayClick on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the daily (columns) and 7-day average (line) of deaths reported.

New cases, hospitalizations and deaths are all declining.

Average daily deaths are the lowest since early August 2021.