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Saturday, April 30, 2022

Schedule for Week of May 1, 2022

by Calculated Risk on 4/30/2022 08:11:00 AM

The key report scheduled for this week is the April employment report.

Other key reports include April vehicle sales, and the March trade balance.

The FOMC meets this week, and the FOMC is expected to raise rates 50bp.

For manufacturing, the April ISM manufacturing index will be released.

----- Monday, May 2nd -----

10:00 AM ET: ISM Manufacturing Index for April. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 57.6, up from 57.1 in March.

10:00 AM: Construction Spending for March. The consensus is for a 0.7% increase in construction spending.

----- Tuesday, May 3rd -----

8:00 AM ET: Corelogic House Price index for March.

Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey10:00 AM ET: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for March from the BLS.

This graph shows job openings (yellow line), hires (purple), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS.

Jobs openings decreased slightly in February to 11.266 million from 11.283 million in January. The number of job openings (yellow) were up 43% year-over-year.

Vehicle SalesAll day: Light vehicle sales for April. The expectation is for light vehicle sales to be 13.8 million SAAR in April, up from 13.36 million in March (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).

This graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967. The dashed line is the sales rate for the previous month.

----- Wednesday, May 4th -----

7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

8:15 AM: The ADP Employment Report for April. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 395,000 payroll jobs added in April, down from 455,000 added in March.

U.S. Trade Deficit8:30 AM: Trade Balance report for March from the Census Bureau.

This graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum, through the most recent report. The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products.

The consensus is the trade deficit to be $107.0 billion.  The U.S. trade deficit was at $89.2 Billion in February.

10:00 AM: the ISM Services Index for April.   The consensus is for a reading of 58.5, up from 58.3.

2:00 PM: FOMC Meeting Announcement. The FOMC is expected to raise the Fed Funds rate by 50bp at this meeting and announce "commencement of balance sheet runoff".

2:30 PM: Fed Chair Jerome Powell holds a press briefing following the FOMC announcement.

----- Thursday, May 5th -----

8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  The consensus is for 180 thousand unchanged from 180 thousand last week.

----- Friday, May 6th -----

Employment Recessions, Scariest Job Chart8:30 AM: Employment Report for April.   The consensus is for 400,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 3.6%.

There were 431,000 jobs added in February, and the unemployment rate was at 3.6%.

This graph shows the job losses from the start of the employment recession, in percentage terms.

The current employment recession was by far the worst recession since WWII in percentage terms. However, the current employment recession, 25 months after the onset, has recovered quicker than the previous two recessions.