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Tuesday, April 26, 2022

New Home Sales decrease to 763,000 Annual Rate in March

by Calculated Risk on 4/26/2022 10:09:00 AM

The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in March were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 763 thousand.

The previous three months were revised up sharply.

Sales of new single‐family houses in March 2022 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 763,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 8.6 percent below the revised February rate of 835,000 and is 12.6 percent below the March 2021 estimate of 873,000.
emphasis added
New Home SalesClick on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows New Home Sales vs. recessions since 1963. The dashed line is the current sales rate.

New home sales are now declining year-over-year since sales soared following the first few months of the pandemic.

The second graph shows New Home Months of Supply.

New Home Sales, Months of SupplyThe months of supply increased in March to 6.4 months from 5.6 months in February.

The all-time record high was 12.1 months of supply in January 2009. The all-time record low was 3.5 months, most recently in October 2020.

This is above the top of the normal range (about 4 to 6 months of supply is normal).
"The seasonally‐adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of March was 407,000. This represents a supply of 6.4 months at the current sales rate"
New Home Sales, NSAThe last graph shows sales NSA (monthly sales, not seasonally adjusted annual rate).

In March 2022 (red column), 72 thousand new homes were sold (NSA). Last year, 83 thousand homes were sold in March.

The all-time high for March was 127 thousand in 2005, and the all-time low for March was 28 thousand in 2011.

This was below expectations, however sales in the three previous months were revised up sharply. I'll have more later today.