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Saturday, March 26, 2022

Schedule for Week of March 27, 2022

by Calculated Risk on 3/26/2022 08:11:00 AM

The key report scheduled for this week is the March employment report on Friday.

Other key reports include the 3rd estimate of Q4 GDP, February Personal Income & Outlays, January Case-Shiller house prices and March Auto Sales.

For manufacturing, the March Dallas Fed survey and the ISM Manufacturing survey will be released.

----- Monday, March 28th -----

10:30 AM: Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for March. This is the last of the regional surveys for March.

----- Tuesday, March 29th -----

Case-Shiller House Prices Indices9:00 AM: S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for January.

This graph shows the year-over-year change for the Case-Shiller National, Composite 10 and Composite 20 indexes, through the most recent report (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

The consensus is for a 18.3% year-over-year increase in the Comp 20 index.

9:00 AM: FHFA House Price Index for January 2021. This was originally a GSE only repeat sales, however there is also an expanded index.

Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey10:00 AM ET: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for February from the BLS.

This graph shows job openings (yellow line), hires (purple), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS.

Jobs openings decreased in January to 11.3 million from 11.4 million in December.

----- Wednesday, March 30th -----

7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

8:15 AM: The ADP Employment Report for March. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 438,000 payroll jobs added in March, down from 475,000 added in February.

8:30 AM, Gross Domestic Product, 4th quarter 2021 (Third estimate). The consensus is that real GDP increased 7.1% annualized in Q4.

----- Thursday, March 31st -----

8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  The consensus is for an increase to 195 thousand from 187 thousand last week.

8:30 AM: Personal Income and Outlays for February. The consensus is for a 0.5% increase in personal income, and for a 0.5% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.4%.

9:45 AM: Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for March. The consensus is for a reading of 56.6, up from 56.3 in February.

----- Friday, April 1st -----

Employment Recessions, Scariest Job Chart8:30 AM: Employment Report for March.   The consensus is for 475,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to decrease to 3.7%.

There were 678,000 jobs added in February, and the unemployment rate was at 3.8%.

This graph shows the job losses from the start of the employment recession, in percentage terms.

The current employment recession was by far the worst recession since WWII in percentage terms. However, the current employment recession, 24 months after the onset, is now significantly better than the worst of the "Great Recession".

10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for March. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 58.6, unchanged from 58.6 in February.  

10:00 AM: Construction Spending for February. The consensus is for a 0.9% increase in construction spending.

Vehicle SalesAll Day: Light vehicle sales for March. The consensus is for light vehicle sales to be 14.1 million SAAR in March, unchanged from 14.1 million in February (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).

This graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967. The dashed line is the February sales rate.