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Thursday, February 10, 2022

MBA: "Mortgage Delinquencies Decrease in the Fourth Quarter of 2021"

by Calculated Risk on 2/10/2022 10:44:00 AM

From the MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Decrease in the Fourth Quarter of 2021

The delinquency rate for mortgage loans on one-to-four-unit residential properties decreased to a seasonally adjusted rate of 4.65 percent of all loans outstanding at the end of the fourth quarter of 2021, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) National Delinquency Survey.

For the purposes of the survey, MBA asks servicers to report loans in forbearance as delinquent if the payment was not made based on the original terms of the mortgage. The delinquency rate was down 23 basis points from the third quarter of 2021 and down 208 basis points from one year ago.

Mortgage delinquencies descended in the final three months of 2021, reaching levels at or below MBA’s survey averages dating back to 1979,” said Marina Walsh, CMB, MBA’s Vice President of Industry Analysis. “The fourth-quarter delinquency rate of 4.65 percent was 67 basis points lower than MBA’s survey average of 5.32 percent. Furthermore, the seriously delinquent rate, the percentage of loans that are 90 days or more past due or in the process of foreclosure, was 2.83 percent in the fourth quarter, close to the long-term average of 2.80 percent.”

Added Walsh, “The quarters right before the COVID-19 pandemic represented some of the lowest delinquencies ever recorded. Delinquencies are now approaching levels not seen since the first quarter of 2020, which is a testament to the strength of the U.S. labor market.”
emphasis added
MBA Delinquency by PeriodClick on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the percent of loans delinquent by days past due.  Overall delinquencies decreased in Q4.

From the MBA:
Compared to last quarter, the seasonally adjusted mortgage delinquency rate decreased for all loans outstanding. By stage, the 30-day delinquency rate increased 14 basis points to 1.65 percent, the 60-day delinquency rate increased 4 basis points to 0.56 percent, and the 90-day delinquency bucket decreased 41 basis points to 2.44 percent.
The delinquency rate includes loans that are at least one payment past due but does not include loans in the process of foreclosure. The percentage of loans in the foreclosure process at the end of the fourth quarter was 0.42 percent, down 4 basis points from the third quarter of 2021 and 14 basis points lower than one year ago. This is the lowest foreclosure inventory rate since the third quarter of 1981. The percentage of loans on which foreclosure actions were started in the fourth quarter rose by 1 basis point to 0.04 percent, up from the survey low seen in third-quarter 2021 at 0.03 percent.
This sharp increase in 2020 in the 90-day bucket was due to loans in forbearance (included as delinquent, but not reported to the credit bureaus).

The percent of loans in the foreclosure process declined further and was at the lowest level since 1981.