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Tuesday, January 18, 2022

Wednesday: Housing Starts

by Calculated Risk on 1/18/2022 08:52:00 PM

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Remember Mortgage Rates in the 2's? They're Closer to 4% Now

One of the very few welcome byproducts of the pandemic was the pervasive availability of new all-time low mortgage rates. Depending on when you checked in, you were highly likely to see top tier 30yr fixed rates in the 2% range. ... The average lender is now up to 3.75% after starting the day at 3.625%. [30 year fixed 3.70%]
emphasis added
• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

• At 8:30 AM, Housing Starts for December. The consensus is for 1.655 million SAAR, down from 1.679 million SAAR.

• During the day, The AIA's Architecture Billings Index for December (a leading indicator for commercial real estate).

On COVID (focus on hospitalizations and deaths):

COVID Metrics
Percent fully Vaccinated63.0%---≥70.0%1
Fully Vaccinated (millions)209.3---≥2321
New Cases per Day3701,277752,342≤5,0002
Deaths per Day3🚩1,7461,664≤502
1 Minimum to achieve "herd immunity" (estimated between 70% and 85%).
2my goals to stop daily posts,
37-day average for Cases, Currently Hospitalized, and Deaths
🚩 Increasing 7-day average week-over-week for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths
✅ Goal met.

COVID-19 Positive Tests per DayClick on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the daily (columns) and 7-day average (line) of positive tests reported.

The 7-day average for new cases are just below record levels.  Hospitalizations are at record levels.

Fortunately, deaths are still only half the previous 7-day average record of 3,421 per day in January 2021.