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Wednesday, January 05, 2022

Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Trade Deficit, ISM Services

by Calculated Risk on 1/05/2022 09:00:00 PM

• At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  Initial claims were 198 thousand last week.

• At 8:30 AM, Trade Balance report for November from the Census Bureau. The consensus is the trade deficit to be $70.0 billion.  The U.S. trade deficit was at $67.1 billion in October.

• At 10:00 AM, the ISM Services Index for December.

And on COVID (focus on hospitalizations and deaths):

COVID Metrics
Percent fully Vaccinated62.3%---≥70.0%1
Fully Vaccinated (millions)206.8---≥2321
New Cases per Day3🚩554,328281,842≤5,0002
Deaths per Day3🚩1,2381,072≤502
1 Minimum to achieve "herd immunity" (estimated between 70% and 85%).
2my goals to stop daily posts,
37-day average for Cases, Currently Hospitalized, and Deaths
🚩 Increasing 7-day average week-over-week for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths
✅ Goal met.

COVID-19 Positive Tests per DayClick on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the daily (columns) and 7-day average (line) of positive tests reported.

New cases are at record levels.  It appears likely hospitalizations will exceed the previous 7-day average record of 124,031 a year ago.

Fortunately, deaths are still well below the previous 7-day average record of 3,421 in January 2021.