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Wednesday, January 26, 2022

Thursday: GDP, Unemployment Claims, Durable Goods, Pending Home Sales

by Calculated Risk on 1/26/2022 08:22:00 PM

• At 8:30 AM ET, Gross Domestic Product, 4th quarter 2021 (Advance estimate). The consensus is that real GDP increased 5.4% annualized in Q4.

• Also, at 8:30 AM, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  The consensus is for a decrease to 260 thousand from 286 thousand last week.

• Also, at 8:30 AM, Durable Goods Orders for December. The consensus is for a 0.5% decrease in durable goods.

• At 10:00 AM, Pending Home Sales Index for December. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in the index.

• At 11:00 AM, the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey for January. This is the last of regional manufacturing surveys for January.

On COVID (focus on hospitalizations and deaths):

COVID Metrics
Percent fully Vaccinated63.5%---≥70.0%1
Fully Vaccinated (millions)210.9---≥2321
New Cases per Day3627,294756,355≤5,0002
Deaths per Day3🚩2,2461,698≤502
1 Minimum to achieve "herd immunity" (estimated between 70% and 85%).
2my goals to stop daily posts,
37-day average for Cases, Currently Hospitalized, and Deaths
🚩 Increasing 7-day average week-over-week for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths
✅ Goal met.

COVID-19 Positive Tests per DayClick on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the daily (columns) and 7-day average (line) of positive tests reported.

New cases are now declining.

Unfortunately, deaths are still rising - now averaging over 2 thousand deaths per day - but below the previous 7-day average record of 3,421 in January 2021.