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Friday, January 21, 2022

Q4 GDP Forecasts: 5% to 6%

by Calculated Risk on 1/21/2022 10:16:00 AM

The advance estimate of Q4 GDP will be released on Thursday, January 27th. The consensus estimate is for 6.0% real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate).

From BofA:

We expect the advance estimate of 4Q GDP to show a pickup in growth to 5.0% qoq saar. [January 21 estimate]
emphasis added
From Goldman Sachs:
We left our Q4 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +6.5% (qoq ar). [January 20 estimate]
And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2021 is 5.1 percent on January 19, up from 5.0 percent on January 14. [January 19 estimate]