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Wednesday, January 12, 2022

Mortgage Rates: Moving on Up; Refinance Activity Will Slow Sharply

by Calculated Risk on 1/12/2022 11:39:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Mortgage Rates: Moving on Up

A brief excerpt:

The general rule of thumb is refinance activity will be strong if current mortgage rates are 50bps lower than the maximum of the previous year (this is just a general rule - but it works pretty well).

The following graph shows the MBA Refinance Index (Blue) and the change in mortgage rates (Red). The change is calculated as Maximum in Previous Year minus the current rate). When the red line is above 0.5% (more than 50bps decline in mortgage rates), then refinance activity generally picks up.

Case-Shiller House Prices IndicesCurrently the maximum for the last year is 3.22% (excluding this week), and with current rates at 3.59%, refinance activity will probably decline significantly over the next few weeks.
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