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Thursday, January 06, 2022

Friday: Employment Report

by Calculated Risk on 1/06/2022 07:23:00 PM

My December Employment Preview

Goldman December Payrolls Preview

• At 8:30 AM ET, Employment Report for December.   There were 120 thousand jobs added in November, and the unemployment rate was at 4.2%.  The consensus is for 400 thousand jobs added in December, and for the unemployment rate to decline to 4.1%.

And on COVID (focus on hospitalizations and deaths):

COVID Metrics
Percent fully Vaccinated62.4%---≥70.0%1
Fully Vaccinated (millions)207.0---≥2321
New Cases per Day3🚩586,391315,851≤5,0002
Deaths per Day3🚩1,2451,088≤502
1 Minimum to achieve "herd immunity" (estimated between 70% and 85%).
2my goals to stop daily posts,
37-day average for Cases, Currently Hospitalized, and Deaths
🚩 Increasing 7-day average week-over-week for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths
✅ Goal met.

COVID-19 Positive Tests per DayClick on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the daily (columns) and 7-day average (line) of positive tests reported.

New cases are at record levels.  It appears likely hospitalizations will exceed the previous 7-day average record of 124,031 a year ago.

Fortunately, deaths are still well below the previous 7-day average record of 3,421 in January 2021.