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Friday, December 31, 2021

Question #7 for 2022: How about housing starts and new home sales in 2022?

by Calculated Risk on 12/31/2021 12:23:00 PM

Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: Question #7 for 2022: How much will Residential investment change in 2022? How about housing starts and new home sales in 2022?

A brief excerpt:

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2022. Some of these questions concern real estate (inventory, house prices, housing credit, housing starts, new home sales), and I’ll post those in the newsletter (others like GDP and employment will be on my blog).

I'm adding some thoughts, and maybe some predictions for each question.
Case-Shiller House Prices IndicesMost analysts are looking for new home sales to increase in 2022. For example, the NAHB expects new home sales to increase to 840 thousand in 2022, and Fannie Mae expects 897 thousand, and the MBA is forecasting 922 thousand in 2022.

And for housing starts, Fannie Mae is forecasting starts will be mostly unchanged at 1.6 million, and the NAHB is forecasting a decline to 1.55 million.

My guess is starts will be down low-to-mid single digits year-over-year in 2022. New home sales could pick up solidly if existing home inventory stays low, supply issues are resolved, and mortgage rates stay low, but my guess is new home sales will be mostly unchanged year-over-year.
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