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Thursday, December 02, 2021

Goldman November Payrolls Preview

by Calculated Risk on 12/02/2021 04:09:00 PM

A few brief excerpts from a note by Goldman Sachs economist Spencer Hill:

We estimate nonfarm payrolls rose 575k in November ... Big Data employment indicators were mixed in the month, and we also see some chance that labor supply constraints weighed on pre-holiday hiring in the retail industry. ... We estimate a one-tenth drop in the unemployment rate to 4.5%, reflecting a strong household employment gain but a likely rebound in the labor force participation rate
emphasis added
CR Note: The consensus is for 563 thousand jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to decrease to 4.5%.