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Saturday, November 27, 2021

Schedule for Week of November 28, 2021

by Calculated Risk on 11/27/2021 08:11:00 AM

The key report this week is the November employment report on Friday.

Other key indicators include the September Case-Shiller house price index, the November ISM manufacturing and services indexes, and November vehicle sales.

----- Monday, November 29th -----

10:00 AM: Pending Home Sales Index for October. The consensus is for a 1.0% increase in the index.

10:30 AM: Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for November. This is the last of the regional Fed manufacturing surveys for November.

----- Tuesday, November 30th -----

9:00 AM: FHFA House Price Index for September. This was originally a GSE only repeat sales, however there is also an expanded index. The 2022 Conforming loan limits will also be announced.

Case-Shiller House Prices Indices 9:00 AM ET: S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for September.

This graph shows graph shows the Year over year change in the seasonally adjusted National Index, Composite 10 and Composite 20 indexes through the most recent report (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

The consensus is for a 19.3% year-over-year increase in the Composite 20 index for September.

9:45 AM: Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for November.

10:00 AM: Testimony, Fed Chair Jerome Powell, Coronavirus and CARES Act, Before the U.S. Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs

10:30 AM: FDIC Quarterly Banking Profile, Third quarter.

----- Wednesday, December 1st -----

7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

8:15 AM: The ADP Employment Report for November. This report is for private payrolls only (no government).  The consensus is for 525,000 jobs added, down from 571,000 in October.

10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for November.  The consensus is for 61.0%, up from 60.8%.

10:00 AM: Construction Spending for October.  The consensus is for 0.4% increase in spending.

2:00 PM: the Federal Reserve Beige Book, an informal review by the Federal Reserve Banks of current economic conditions in their Districts.

Vehicle SalesAll day: Light vehicle sales for November.

The consensus is for 13.2 million SAAR in November, up from the BEA estimate of 13.0 million SAAR in October (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).

This graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967. The dashed line is the current sales rate.

----- Thursday, December 2nd -----

8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  The consensus is for 250 thousand initial claims, up from 199 thousand last week.

----- Friday, December 3rd -----

Employment Recessions, Scariest Job Chart8:30 AM: Employment Report for November.   The consensus is for 563 thousand jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to decrease to 4.5%.

There were 531 thousand jobs added in October, and the unemployment rate was at 4.6%.

This graph shows the job losses from the start of the employment recession, in percentage terms.

The current employment recession was by far the worst recession since WWII in percentage terms, but currently is not as severe as the "Great Recession".

10:00 AM: the ISM Services Index for November.