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Friday, November 05, 2021

October Employment Report: 531 Thousand Jobs, 4.6% Unemployment Rate

by Calculated Risk on 11/05/2021 08:42:00 AM

From the BLS:

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 531,000 in October, and the unemployment rate edged down by 0.2 percentage point to 4.6 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job growth was widespread, with notable job gains in leisure and hospitality, in professional and business services, in manufacturing, and in transportation and warehousing. Employment in public education declined over the month.
The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for August was revised up by 117,000, from +366,000 to +483,000, and the change for September was revised up by 118,000, from +194,000 to +312,000. With these revisions, employment in August and September combined is 235,000 higher than previously reported.
emphasis added
Year-over-year change employmentClick on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the year-over-year change in total non-farm employment since 1968.

In October, the year-over-year change was 5.8 million jobs.  This was up significantly year-over-year.

Total payrolls increased by 531 thousand in October.  Private payrolls increased by 604 thousand, and public payrolls declined 73 thousand.

Payrolls for August and September were revised up 235 thousand, combined.

Employment Recessions, Scariest Job ChartThe second graph shows the job losses from the start of the employment recession, in percentage terms.

The current employment recession was by far the worst recession since WWII in percentage terms, but currently is not as severe as the worst of the "Great Recession".

The third graph shows the employment population ratio and the participation rate.

Employment Pop Ratio, participation and unemployment rates The Labor Force Participation Rate was unchanged at 61.6% in October, from 61.6% in September. This is the percentage of the working age population in the labor force.

The Employment-Population ratio increased to 58.8% from 58.7% (black line).

I'll post the 25 to 54 age group employment-population ratio graph later.

unemployment rateThe fourth graph shows the unemployment rate.

The unemployment rate decreased in October to 4.6% from 4.8% in September.

This was above consensus expectations, and August and September were revised up by 235,000 combined.  A strong report.

I'll have more later ...