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Thursday, November 04, 2021

Goldman October Payrolls Preview

by Calculated Risk on 11/04/2021 04:08:00 PM

A few brief excerpts from a note by Goldman Sachs economist Spencer Hill:

We estimate nonfarm payrolls rose 525k in October ... tomorrow’s report reflects the first full month of hiring following the expiration of federal enhanced unemployment benefits. Our forecast also reflects improving public health, strong labor demand, and a partial education rebound as schools gradually fill positions left open at the start of the school year. On the negative side, the seasonal factors may have evolved to fit the strong October 2020 data, raising the seasonal hurdle in tomorrow’s report. ... We estimate a one-tenth drop in the unemployment rate to 4.7%.
emphasis added
CR Note: The consensus is for 450 thousand jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to decrease to 4.7%.