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Friday, October 08, 2021

September Employment Report: 194 Thousand Jobs, 4.8% Unemployment Rate

by Calculated Risk on 10/08/2021 08:41:00 AM

From the BLS:

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 194,000 in September, and the unemployment rate fell by 0.4 percentage point to 4.8 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Notable job gains occurred in leisure and hospitality, in professional and business services, in retail trade, and in transportation and warehousing. Employment in public education declined over the month.
...
The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for July was revised up by 38,000, from +1,053,000 to +1,091,000, and the change for August was revised up by 131,000, from +235,000 to +366,000. With these revisions, employment in July and August combined is 169,000 higher than previously reported.
emphasis added
Year-over-year change employmentClick on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the year-over-year change in total non-farm employment since 1968.

In September, the year-over-year change was 5.7 million jobs.  This was up significantly year-over-year.

Total payrolls increased by 194 thousand in August.  Private payrolls increased by 317 thousand.

Payrolls for July and August were revised up 169 thousand, combined.

Employment Recessions, Scariest Job ChartThe second graph shows the job losses from the start of the employment recession, in percentage terms.

The current employment recession was by far the worst recession since WWII in percentage terms, but currently is not as severe as the worst of the "Great Recession".

The third graph shows the employment population ratio and the participation rate.

Employment Pop Ratio, participation and unemployment rates The Labor Force Participation Rate was declined to 61.6% in September, from 61.7% in August. This is the percentage of the working age population in the labor force.

The Employment-Population ratio increased to 58.7% from 58.5% (black line).

I'll post the 25 to 54 age group employment-population ratio graph later.

unemployment rateThe fourth graph shows the unemployment rate.

The unemployment rate decreased in September to 4.8% from 5.2% in August.

This was well below consensus expectations, however July and August were revised up by 169,000 combined.

I'll have more later ...