by Calculated Risk on 10/02/2021 08:11:00 AM

The key report this week is the September employment report on Friday.

Other key indicators include the September ISM Services index and the August trade deficit.

----- Monday, October 4th -----
No major economic releases scheduled.

----- Tuesday, October 5th -----
8:00 AM ET: Corelogic House Price index for August

8:30 AM: Trade Balance report for August from the Census Bureau.  The consensus is for the deficit to be $70.5 billion in August, from $70.1 billion in July.

This graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum, through the most recent report. The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products.

10:00 AM: the ISM Services Index for September.

----- Wednesday, October 6th -----
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

8:15 AM: The ADP Employment Report for September. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 430,000 jobs added, up from 374,000 in August.

----- Thursday, October 7th -----
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  The consensus is for 345 thousand initial claims, down from 362 thousand last week.

----- Friday, October 8th -----
8:30 AM: Employment Report for September.   The consensus is for 460 thousand jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to decrease to 5.1%.

There were 235 thousand jobs added in August, and the unemployment rate was at 5.2%.

This graph shows the job losses from the start of the employment recession, in percentage terms.

The current employment recession was by far the worst recession since WWII in percentage terms, but currently is not as severe as the worst of the "Great Recession".