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Tuesday, October 26, 2021

New Home Sales Increase to 800,000 Annual Rate in September

by Calculated Risk on 10/26/2021 10:09:00 AM

The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in September were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 800 thousand.

The previous three months were revised down significantly.

Sales of new single‐family houses in September 2021 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 800,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 14.0 percent above the revised August rate of 702,000, but is 17.6 percent below the September 2020 estimate of 971,000
emphasis added
New Home SalesClick on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows New Home Sales vs. recessions since 1963. The dashed line is the current sales rate.

New home sales are now declining year-over-year since sales soared following the first few months of the pandemic.

The second graph shows New Home Months of Supply.

New Home Sales, Months of SupplyThe months of supply decreased in September to 5.7 months from 6.5 months in August.

The all time record high was 12.1 months of supply in January 2009. The all time record low was 3.5 months, most recently in October 2020.

This is in the normal range (about 4 to 6 months supply is normal).
"The seasonally‐adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of September was 379,000. This represents a supply of 5.7 months at the current sales rate"
New Home Sales, NSAThe last graph shows sales NSA (monthly sales, not seasonally adjusted annual rate).

In September 2021 (red column), 65 thousand new homes were sold (NSA). Last year, 77 thousand homes were sold in September.

The all time high for September was 99 thousand in 2005, and the all time low for September was 24 thousand in 2011.

This was above expectations of 760 thousand SAAR, however sales in the three previous months were revised down significantly. I'll have more later today.