by Calculated Risk on 10/04/2021 02:40:00 PM

Tracking existing home inventory will be very important this year.

Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

This inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research.

As of October 1st, inventory was at 428 thousand (7 day average), compared to 563 thousand for the same week a year ago.  That is a decline of 23.9%.

Compared to the same week in 2019, inventory is down 55% from 955 thousand.

A week ago, inventory was at 433 thousand, and was down 23.8% YoY.   Four weeks ago inventory was at 437 thousand (the peak for the year so far).

Seasonally, inventory bottomed in April (usually inventory bottoms in January or February).  Now inventory may have peaked for the year.   Inventory was about 39.7% above the record low in early April.

Key question: Usually inventory peaks in the Summer, and then declines into the Fall.  Will inventory follow the normal seasonal pattern, or will inventory continue to increase over the coming months?  This will be important to watch for house prices and housing activity.  

Mike Simonsen discusses this data regularly on Youtube.  

Altos Research has also seen a significant pickup in price decreases - now well above the level of a year ago - but still below a normal rate for October.