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Thursday, October 07, 2021

Goldman September Payrolls Preview

by Calculated Risk on 10/07/2021 04:07:00 PM

A few brief excerpts from a note by Goldman Sachs economist Spencer Hill:

We estimate nonfarm payrolls rose 600k in September ... we believe the nationwide expiration of enhanced unemployment benefits on September 5 boosted effective labor supply and job growth ... We are assuming a 200k boost in tomorrow’s numbers and a larger boost in October. We also believe the reopening of schools contributed to September job growth, by around 150k. ... We estimate a one-tenth drop in the unemployment rate to 5.1%
emphasis added
CR Note: The consensus is for 460 thousand jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to decrease to 5.1%.