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Thursday, September 02, 2021

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 340,000

by Calculated Risk on 9/02/2021 08:35:00 AM

The DOL reported:

In the week ending August 28, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 340,000, a decrease of 14,000 from the previous week's revised level. This is the lowest level for initial claims since March 14, 2020 when it was 256,000. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 353,000 to 354,000. The 4-week moving average was 355,000, a decrease of 11,750 from the previous week's revised average. This is the lowest level for this average since March 14, 2020 when it was 225,500. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 366,500 to 366,750.
emphasis added
This does not include the 102,405 initial claims for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) that was down from 116,425​ the previous week.

The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to 355,000.

The previous week was revised up.

Regular state continued claims decreased to 2,748,000 (SA) from 2,908,000 (SA) the previous week.

Note: There are an additional 5,413,238 receiving Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) that increased from 5,004,753 the previous week (there are questions about these numbers). This is a special program for business owners, self-employed, independent contractors or gig workers not receiving other unemployment insurance.  And an additional 3,800,000 receiving Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation (PEUC) up from 3,793,956.

Weekly claims were close to the consensus forecast.