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Friday, September 10, 2021

Q3 GDP Forecasts: Downgraded to Around 4%

by Calculated Risk on 9/10/2021 01:11:00 PM

GDP forecasts have been downgraded sharply for Q3 due to COVID.  


The surge in COVID cases has impacted some consumer spending, caused further supply chain disruptions, and possibly some downgrades due to policy (expiration of unemployment benefits during a COVID wave).

Here is a table of some downgrades over the last 40 days.

 MerrillGoldmanGDPNow
7/30/217.0%9.0%6.1%
8/20/214.5%5.5%6.1%
9/10/214.5%3.5%3.7%

From BofA Merrill Lynch:
We continue to track 4.5% qoq saar for 3Q GDP. [Sept 10 estimate]
emphasis added
From Goldman Sachs:
We now expect GDP growth of 3.5% in Q3. [Sept 9 estimate]
And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2021 is 3.7 percent on September 10 [Sept 10 estimate]