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Thursday, August 26, 2021

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase to 353,000

by Calculated Risk on 8/26/2021 08:41:00 AM

The DOL reported:

In the week ending August 21, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 353,000, an increase of 4,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 348,000 to 349,000. The 4-week moving average was 366,500, a decrease of 11,500 from the previous week's revised average. This is the lowest level for this average since March 14, 2020 when it was 225,500. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 377,750 to 378,000.
emphasis added
This does not include the 117,709 initial claims for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) that was up from 108,081 the previous week.

The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to 366,500.

The previous week was revised up.

Regular state continued claims decreased to 2,862,000 (SA) from 2,865,000 (SA) the previous week.

Note: There are an additional 5,004,753 receiving Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) that increased from 4,900,047 the previous week (there are questions about these numbers). This is a special program for business owners, self-employed, independent contractors or gig workers not receiving other unemployment insurance.  And an additional 3,793,956 receiving Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation (PEUC) down from 3,846,045.

Weekly claims were slightly above the consensus forecast.