In Depth Analysis: CalculatedRisk Newsletter on Real Estate (Ad Free) Read it here.

Thursday, August 19, 2021

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 348,000

by Calculated Risk on 8/19/2021 08:35:00 AM

The DOL reported:

In the week ending August 14, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 348,000, a decrease of 29,000 from the previous week's revised level. This is the lowest level for initial claims since March 14, 2020 when it was 256,000. The previous week's level was revised up by 2,000 from 375,000 to 377,000. The 4-week moving average was 377,750, a decrease of 19,000 from the previous week's revised average. This is the lowest level for this average since March 14, 2020 when it was 225,500. The previous week's average was revised up by 500 from 396,250 to 396,750.
emphasis added
This does not include the 109,379 initial claims for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) that was up from 103,847 the previous week.

The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to 377,750.

The previous week was revised up.

Regular state continued claims decreased to 2,820,000 (SA) from 2,899,000 (SA) the previous week.

Note: There are an additional 4,877,668 receiving Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) that increased from 4,820,787 the previous week (there are questions about these numbers). This is a special program for business owners, self-employed, independent contractors or gig workers not receiving other unemployment insurance.  And an additional 3,786,488 receiving Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation (PEUC) down from 3,852,569.

Weekly claims were below the consensus forecast.