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Thursday, August 05, 2021

Goldman July Payrolls Preview

by Calculated Risk on 8/05/2021 04:21:00 PM

A few brief excerpts from a note by Goldman Sachs economist Spencer Hill:

We estimate nonfarm payrolls rose 1,150k in July ... Labor supply constraints eased further due to the wind-down of federal unemployment top-ups in some states and the addition of over 2 million youth job seekers in June and July. ... We estimate a 0.4pp drop in the unemployment rate to 5.5% (vs. consensus 5.7%), reflecting a strong household employment gain offset by a sizable rise in the participation rate.
emphasis added
CR Note: The consensus is for 900 thousand jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to decrease to 5.7%.