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Wednesday, July 28, 2021

Zillow Case-Shiller House Price Forecast: "Expected to decelerate", 16.2% YoY in June

by Calculated Risk on 7/28/2021 01:02:00 PM

The Case-Shiller house price indexes for May were released yesterday. Zillow forecasts Case-Shiller a month early, and I like to check the Zillow forecasts since they have been pretty close.

From Matthew Speakman at Zillow: May 2021 Case-Shiller Results & Forecast: Growth Continues Climb

The forces that have propelled home price growth to new highs over the past year remain in place and are offering little evidence of abating.
The housing market’s historically tight inventory conditions finally started to ease in May, but that did little to immediately tame the record-strong home price appreciation that the market has experienced in recent months. The number available homes across the nation finally ticked up this spring, albeit from a historically low reference point, after spending most of the last year in a steady decline. Still, price pressures remain very firm and appear ready to stay that way in the months to come. Indeed, sharply-rising prices do appear to have priced out some home shoppers, particularly those looking to enter the market for the first time, and causing fatigue among would-be buyers. But overall demand for homes remains very firm, as bidding wars persist and the still-relatively few homes available for sales continue to fly off the shelves at a historically fast pace. Increased inventory levels should eventually help tame the record-high pace of price appreciation, but it’s going to take a while.

Monthly and annual growth in June as reported by Case-Shiller is expected to decelerate from May and April 2020 in all three main indices. S&P Dow Jones Indices is expected to release data for the June S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices on Tuesday, August 24.
emphasis added
Zillow forecast for Case-ShillerThe Zillow forecast is for the year-over-year change for the Case-Shiller National index to be at 16.2% in June, from 16.6% in May.

The Zillow forecast is for the 20-City index to be up 16.5% YoY in June from 17.0% in May, and for the 10-City index to be up 16.1% YoY compared to 16.4% YoY in May.