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Thursday, July 08, 2021

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase to 373,000

by Calculated Risk on 7/08/2021 08:35:00 AM

The DOL reported:

In the week ending July 3, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 373,000, an increase of 2,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 7,000 from 364,000 to 371,000. The 4-week moving average was 394,500, a decrease of 250 from the previous week's revised average. This is the lowest level for this average since March 14, 2020 when it was 225,500. The previous week's average was revised up by 2,000 from 392,750 to 394,750
emphasis added
This does not include the 99,001 initial claims for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) that was down from 114,186 the previous week.

The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims increased to 392,750.

The previous week was revised up.

Regular state continued claims decreased to 3,339,000 (SA) from 3,484,000 (SA) the previous week.

Note: There are an additional 5,824,831 receiving Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) that decreased from 5,935,630 the previous week (there are questions about these numbers). This is a special program for business owners, self-employed, independent contractors or gig workers not receiving other unemployment insurance.  And an additional 4,908,107 receiving Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation (PEUC) down from 5,261,991.

Weekly claims were higher than the consensus forecast.