Thursday, July 22, 2021

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase to 419,000

by Calculated Risk on 7/22/2021 08:35:00 AM

The DOL reported:

In the week ending July 17, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 419,000, an increase of 51,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 8,000 from 360,000 to 368,000. The 4-week moving average was 385,250, an increase of 750 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 2,000 from 382,500 to 384,500.
emphasis added
This does not include the 96,362 initial claims for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) that was down from 100,590 the previous week.

The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims increased to 385,250.

The previous week was revised up.

Regular state continued claims decreased to 3,236,000 (SA) from 3,265,000 (SA) the previous week.

Note: There are an additional 5,133,938 receiving Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) that decreased from 5,687,188 the previous week (there are questions about these numbers). This is a special program for business owners, self-employed, independent contractors or gig workers not receiving other unemployment insurance.  And an additional 4,134,716 receiving Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation (PEUC) down from 4,710,359.

Weekly claims were higher than the consensus forecast.