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Monday, July 12, 2021

Tuesday: CPI

by Calculated Risk on 7/12/2021 09:00:00 PM

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: MBS RECAP: Still on a Fence as Bonds Work Through Early-Week Risks

We closed out last week on a fence about the short term outlook for rates. On the one hand, Friday was fairly weak. On the other hand that weakness followed 3 great days of gains and could furthermore be rationalized as defensive positioning ahead of early risks in the week ahead. We made it through half of those risks on Monday (3 and 10yr Treasury auction) with minimal damage, but certainly no major gains. As such, bonds look like they're keeping their options open for now. We hope to get a better lay of the land after tomorrow's events (CPI and 30yr bond auction). [30 year fixed 3.09%]
emphasis added
• At 6:00 AM ET, NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for June.

• At 8:30 AM, The Consumer Price Index for June from the BLS. The consensus is for a 0.5% increase in CPI, and a 0.4% increase in core CPI.