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Friday, July 23, 2021

Q2 GDP Forecasts: Around 8%

by Calculated Risk on 7/23/2021 11:19:00 AM

The BEA will release the advance estimate of Q2 GDP next Thursday. The consensus forecast is for real GDP to increase 8.2% in Q2, from Q1, on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis (SAAR).

From BofA:

We expect growth of 8.5% qoq saar in 2Q from 6.4% qoq saar in 1Q. [July 23 estimate]
emphasis added
From Goldman Sachs:
We left our Q2 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +8¼% (qoq ar). [July 22 estimate]
From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report
The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 3.2% for 2021:Q2 and 4.1% for 2021:Q3. [July 23 estimate]
And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2021 is 7.6 percent on July 20, up from 7.5 percent on July 16. [July 20 estimate]